Farouk Al-Sharaa, Syria Vice President, Says Army Can't Win

Syrian Vice-President Farouq al-Sharaa has said neither the government's forces nor the rebels can win the 21-month-old conflict.

Mr Sharaa told Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar that the situation was worsening and a "historic settlement" was needed.

He said neither the opposition nor the security forces could bring about a decisive end to the ongoing violence.

Meanwhile an Italian citizen and two others were kidnapped near the town of Latakia, Italy's foreign ministry said.

All three are said to work at a steel plant and have different nationalities. The ministry has decided not to provide further information about the three in order to protect them.

In a separate development, there are reports that a senior Lebanese politician has been blacklisted by the US for allegedly assisting the Syrian government to launch attacks in Lebanon.

AFP news agency quoted a US Treasury Department statement as saying former information and tourism minister Michel Samaha had been labelled a "specially designated global terrorist".

'Syrian solution'

Mr Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim, has rarely been seen since the uprising began.

He is not believed to part of President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle, which is dominated by members of his family and his minority Alawite sect.

However, the 74-year-old is the most prominent government figure to say in public that the military will not defeat the armed rebellion.

Mr Sharaa spoke to al-Akhbar - a pro-Assad daily - from the capital, Damascus, where there has been intense fighting in recent weeks as government forces have used warplanes and artillery in effort to dislodge rebels from positions in the surrounding countryside.

"With every passing day the political and military solutions are becoming more distant," he said. "We should be in a position defending the existence of Syria. We are not in a battle for an individual or a regime.

"The opposition cannot decisively settle the battle and what the security forces and army units are doing will not achieve a decisive settlement."

Mr Sharaa said any settlement "must be Syrian" but also must involve regional powers and the UN Security Council, and lead to the formation of a "national unity government with broad powers".

It is not clear what kind of role Mr Sharaa has in mind for Mr Assad in such a government, says the BBC's James Reynolds in Turkey.

However, the opposition has rejected all suggestions which might keep him in power and their recent gains make them believe that they can topple him by force, not negotiation, our correspondent adds.

'Dramatic escalation'

On Monday, the army reportedly told people to leave the Palestinian refugee camp at Yarmouk in southern Damascus, suggesting an offensive was imminent.

It came a day after activists said fighter jets had bombed the camp, killing at least eight people sheltering in a mosque. Footage posted online purportedly showed bodies and body parts scattered on the stairs. 

Afterwards, clashes flared between Palestinians from the pro-Assad Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) and rebel fighters.

"There is a state of real war in the camp now," resident Abu Mohammed told the AFP news agency on Monday.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on Monday urged Palestinians in the camp to "expel" what he termed "terrorist groups" there.

State news agency Sana said Mr Muallem had also telephoned Ban Ki-moon after the UN secretary general expressed concern at the "continued dramatic escalation of violence" in the camp.

Mr Muallem said it was the UN and international community who were "responsible for the frustrations of the Palestinians because they have not implemented UN resolutions related to their legitimate rights".

In northern Syria, rebels said they had captured the Hananu military academy in Aleppo, the second major installation taken in a week in the area.

Commanders also said they were launching an operation to seize control of the central province of Hama. Qassem Saad al-Din, a member of the rebel military command, told Reuters that fighters had been ordered to begin surrounding and attacking checkpoints.

"When we liberate the countryside of Hama province... then we will have the area between Aleppo and Hama liberated and open for us," he said.

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Russian official: Assad losing control

 

Russia's top diplomat for the Middle East said Syrian President Bashar Assad's government is losing control and territory to rebels.

Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, in remarks to Russia's Public Chamber, said it is "impossible to exclude a victory of the Syrian opposition," an indication Russia -- one of Syria's few allies -- sees Assad as headed for defeat, RIA Novosti reported.

"We must look squarely at the facts, and the trend now suggests that the regime and the government in Syria are losing more and more control and more and more territory," said Bogdanov, in remarks to Russia's Public Chamber that were carried by Russian wire services.

Bogdanov said Russia is preparing to evacuate its citizens, the first time a higher-ranking official had announced plans for an evacuation, The New York Times reported.

Syrian officials rejected the U.S. and other nations' recognition of a new opposition coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad told the British newspaper The Independent the countries were "recognizing an artificial structure, a structure that will help promote the objectives of the U.S. and European countries in Syria.

The Friends of Syria group, representing more than 100 countries and organizations, decided during a meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco, Wednesday to recognize the National Coalition of the Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces.

"What this recognition does, I think, is give the coalition more confidence in its workings," Brookings Institution analyst Salman Sheik, an attendee, told CNN.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, who lead the U.S. delegation in Morocco, told Syrian rebel leaders their recognition carried with it the responsibility of meeting international expectations, CNN said.

Burns said the United States will provide $14 million for emergency medical care and supplies to help Syrians during the coming winter.

In Syria, a U.S. official said forces loyal to Assad fired at least four short-range Scud missiles from Damascus into northern Syria, CNN said. While the missiles didn't land in neighboring Turkey, they "came close."

Analysts said the Assad government has up to 400 of the short- and medium-range Russian-developed Scud missiles.

NATO said Wednesday it has "detected the launch of a number of unguided, short-range ballistic missiles inside Syria this week," with a trajectory and distance indicating they were "Scud-type missiles."

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in Kabul, Afghanistan, said the chemical weapons were a real danger, CNN said.

"I think there's a danger here, based on the intelligence that we got a few weeks ago, that, you know, they were, in fact, beginning to assemble these weapons and put them together," he said in an interview with CNN. "[As] the opposition continues to move against the regime -- particularly as they move toward Damascus -- that if the regime feels it's in danger of collapsing ... it might very well resort to these kinds of weapons. That's what concerns me most."

Syrian rebels threatened to kill Ukrainian journalist Ankhar Kochneva Thursday if their $50 million ransom demand isn't met, RIA Novosti reported.

Kochneva, 40, was kidnapped in October by Syrian rebels while traveling to Homs.

Her captors released a video in which they threatened to target Ukrainian and Russian embassies and their citizens.

"Let not a single Russian, Ukrainian or Iranian come out of Syria alive," the rebels said in a video broadcast by Ukraina TV Wednesday.

Several non-government organizations said Kochneva, an Assad supporter, is being held by the Free Syrian Army.

Syrian Radio reported three bombings in front of the Interior Ministry Wednesday in Damascus killed five people and injured 23. Among the dead was a member of the People's Assembly for the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, the state broadcaster said.

Burns invited Syrian National Coalition President Moaz al-Khatib for the talks during the Friends Syria meeting.

However, after winning international support Khatib criticized the State Department's designation of the jihadi paramilitary group Jabhat al-Nusra, or the al-Nusra Front, as a foreign terrorist organization affiliated with al-Qaida in Iraq, saying the designation hurt the coalition's desire to create unity in Syria.

"I say in all transparency that labeling one of the factions fighting the regime as a terrorist organization should be reconsidered," Khatib said at the conference's opening.

"We love our country," he said. "We can differ with parties that adopt political ideas and visions different from ours. But we ensure that the goal of all rebels is the fall of the regime."

Nusra is an aggressive and successful arm of the rebel forces that helped capture a number of military bases, including a base near Aleppo Monday, opposition forces said.

Concerning the Scud missiles, The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials as playing down the weapons' significance, saying Assad's intent was unclear.

The State Department condemned lethal moves by the Assad regime in general.

"As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons," spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

She also denounced pro-Assad forces for using "barrel bombs," which are large oil drums packed with TNT, oil and chunks of steel shrapnel that are rolled out of the back of regime helicopters.

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Syria: Open declaration of war?

US President Barack Obama has recognized the main Syrian opposition group as a "legitimate representative" of the Syrian people. This brings the US in line with its allies, including Britain, France and several Arab states.

"We've made a decision that the Syrian Opposition Coalition is now inclusive enough, is reflective and representative enough of the Syrian population that we consider them the legitimate representative of the Syrian people in opposition to the Assad regime," Obama said in an interview with ABC.

The recognition marks a major boost for the Syrian rebels seeking to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad.

"Obviously, with that recognition comes responsibilities," Obama said in the interview on Tuesday. "To make sure that they organize themselves effectively, that they are representative of all the parties, that they commit themselves to a political transition that respects women's rights and minority rights." government.

Russia is “surprised” by the US move, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on Wednesday. He said that Washington is apparently betting on a military victory for the Syrian rebels, which goes against the Geneva agreement– the international roadmap for a peaceful solution to the crisis.

The recognition of the coalition by the US is likely to indemnify the hostilities in Syria, believes Conn Hallinan, a contributing editor at Foreign Policy in Focus.

“It opens the door for a much more direct intervention into the civil war in Syria. It will mean that the heavy weapons will come in. Potentially you could end up with a no-fly zone. Really, it's pretty much an open declaration of war against the Assad regime,” he told RT.

The recognition comes after the US Department of State declared a key Syrian rebel group – al-Nusra Front – a terrorist organization. The move was taken despite the group’s success in fighting the Assad regime and protecting rebel strongholds.

The rebel group has been blacklisted for the alleged links it has to Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). US officials have expressed concern that al-Qaeda loyalists and radical Islamists are planning to take control of the opposition movement and influence any post-Assad government.

The al-Nursa Front, which is believed to have 6 to 10 thousand militants in its ranks, is defiant towards the Syrian Opposition Coalition, also known as Syrian National Coalition. The body was formed after a conference in Doha in mid-November and has since been recognized as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people by the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, France, Turkey, Italy, the EU and now the US.

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Ecuador may consider political asylum for Syria’s Assad

After granting WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange political asylum, Ecuador may consider doing the same for embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad and his inner circle, if he asks for it.

Speaking to Brazilian daily Folha de Sao Paulo, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said, “Any person who requests asylum in Ecuador, we will consider as a human being whose basic rights we must respect.”

“We would analyze such a request with all responsibility,” he added.

President Correa confirmed that Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad had visited Quito a few weeks ago, but denied reports from Israel's Haaretz newspaper that they had discussed the possibility of granting political asylum to Assad, his family and his associates.

“These talks did not take place,” Correa said, noting that al-Miqdad expressed gratitude to Ecuador over its “objective position.”

Haaretz reported that al-Miqdad had held meetings in Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador over the past week, bringing with him classified personal letters from Assad to local leaders.

Ecuador already made world headlines by granting political asylum to famous whistleblower Julian Assange in August. However the WikiLeaks founder remains confined inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London as British authorities say that if he leaves, he will be arrested and extradited to Sweden, where he is wanted for questioning in connection with a sexual assault case.

The Syrian president, who has ruled the country since 2000, is facing a civil war with local and foreign opposition forces pushing for him to relinquish power.

Obama and Assad Play Chemical Poker

For the past week, US officials have kept up a flow of leaks to the media suggesting that Syrian President Bashar Assad was on the verge of ordering his army to unleash chemical weapons. 

The details built up as the week went by, starting with the detection of `unusual movements` of Syrian chemical weapons units, advancing to reports that the Syrians were `mixing precursor chemicals` for the nerve gas sarin and on Thursday, Dec. 6, that bombs had been made ready with sarin gas for loading onto Syrian Air Force fighter-bombers when Assad gave the word. 

The strange thing about these tactics is this: If `US officials` -- military and intelligence -- were able to keep track step by step of the movements of Syria`s poisonous weapons and could predict that sooner or later Assad will use them, why didn`t they take preventive action in good time? US, Israeli, Jordanian and Turkish special forces are spread out on the ground in Syria, armed with special gear for combating chemical arms. 

They are close enough to count the convoys carrying canisters, shells or bombs loaded with poison gas and their reports are supplemented by orbiting US military surveillance satellites and drones able to pinpoint the position of the chemical munitions at any given moment.


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USS Eisenhower Aircraft Carrier Arrives Off Syrian Coast

 

The USS Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier that holds eight fighter bomber squadrons and 8,000 men, arrived at the Syrian coast yesterday in the midst of a heavy storm, indicating US preparation for a potential ground intervention.

While the Obama administration has not announced any sort of American-led military intervention in the war-torn country, the US is now ready to launch such action “within days” if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad decides to use chemical weapons against the opposition, the Times reports.

Some have suggested that the Assad regime may use chemical weapons against the opposition fighters in the coming days or weeks.

The arrival of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, one of the 11 US Navy aircraft carriers that has the capacity to hold thousands of men, is now stationed at the coast of Syria, DEBKAfile reports. The aircraft carrier joined the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, which holds about 2,500 Marines.

“We have (US) special operations forces at the right posture, they don’t have to be sent,” an unnamed US official told The Australian, which suggested that US military troops are already near Syria and ready to intervene in the conflict, if necessary.

“The muscle is already there to be flexed,” a US official told the London Times about the US military’s presence outside of Syria. “It’s premature to say what could happen if a decision is made to intervene. That hasn’t taken shape, we’ve not reached that kind of decision. There are a lot of options, but it [military action] could be launched rapidly, within days.”

The move comes after NATO made a significant strategic decision Tuesday to deploy Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems in Turkey on the border of Syria where opposition groups have the stronghold. The defense would be able to protect Turkey from potential Syrian missiles that could contain chemical weapons, as well as intimidate Syrian Air Force pilots from bombing the northern Syria border towns, which the armed rebels control. Syria is thought to have about 700 missiles.

“The protection from NATO will be three dimensional; one is the short-range Patriots, the second is the middle-range Terminal High Altitude Air Defense [THAD] system and the last is the AEGIS system, which counters missiles that can reach outside the atmosphere,” Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.

“The United States now stands ready for direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict when the weather permits,” the news source wrote.

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Al Assad's Last Stand - The battle for Damascus

The battle for Damascus is raging with increasing intensity while rebels continue to make substantial advances in Syria's north and east. Every new air base, city or town that falls to the rebels further underlines that Bashar al Assad's writ over the country is shrinking. It is no longer possible to accurately depict al Assad as the ruler of Syria. At this point, he is merely the head of a large and powerful armed force, albeit one that still controls a significant portion of the country.

It is important to remember that, despite considerable setbacks, al Assad's forces still control a sizable portion of Syria and its population centers. After failing to take Damascus in Operation Damascus Volcano in July, the rebels are again stepping up their efforts and operations in the Damascus area. However, unlike in their previous failed operation, this time the rebels are relying on an intensive guerrilla campaign to exhaust and degrade al Assad's substantial forces in Damascus and its countryside.

After the last surge in fighting around Damascus in July and August, the regime kept large numbers of troops in the area. These forces continued search and destroy operations near the capital despite the considerable pressure facing its forces in the rest of the country, including in Aleppo. Once the rebels began to make gains in the north and east, the regime was forced to dispatch some of its forces around Damascus to reinforce other fronts. Unfortunately for the regime, its operations in the capital area had not significantly degraded local rebel forces. Rebels in the area began intensifying their operations once more, forcing the regime to recall many of its units to Damascus.

Aware of the magnitude of the threat, the regime has reportedly shifted its strategy in the battle for Damascus to isolating the city proper from the numerous suburbs. The rebels have made considerable headway in the Damascus suburbs. For example, on Nov. 25 rebels overran the Marj al-Sultan military air base in eastern Ghouta, east of the capital. Rebel operations in the outskirts of Damascus have also interrupted the flow of goods to and from the city, causing the prices of basic staples such as bread to skyrocket.

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The Enemy of my Enemy in Damascus

A reminder to the administration, no matter who is running it: the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.  The friend of my friend is not necessarily my friend.  And the friend of my enemy is not necessarily my enemy, but he may be not by my friend, either.

Bashar Assad, for example, is Iran's puppet, Hezb'allah's patron, Israel's nemesis, Hamas's erstwhile landlord, and his people's tyrant.  He is the enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood -- our (former?) enemy.  And he has a mixed relationship with al-Qaeda, permitting it to infiltrate Iraq to kill Americans, Shiites, and non-compliant Sunnis, but now finding it joining the jihadis against him.

But Assad is also the friend of Russia, the object of the Obama administration's ardent courtship.  And Russia's enemies are Sunni jihadists, including Chechens and the Muslim Brotherhood.  One (admittedly unlikely) calculation of American interests might have had us join the Russians in stopping the rebels and then working with the Russians to effect political change in Syria.  It couldn't have worked any worse for the Syrian people or the U.S.-Russian relationship than Mrs. Clinton hectoring Putin but failing to change his deeply rooted interest in maintaining its port in Syria and hitting back at the jihadists.

On the other side of the equation, the administration admitted that it didn't know who the "anti-Assad rebels" were or what alliances, if any, they had.  The U.S. therefore decided publicly to stay out of the fight.  It was a rational decision, if one that drove the left nuts.  But we didn't actually stay out.  Instead, the president outsourced the political organization and military establishment of the rebels to a combination of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar -- three countries that do not share our views on a variety of important issues.  Turkey positions itself as an enemy of America's friend, Israel; Qatar broke the quarantine on Hamas, our enemy; Saudi Arabia funds radical Islamist organizations up to and including al-Qaeda.

CIA has taken on a greater role in responding to the Syrian uprising

There are now reports that the U.S. was actually arming the rebels all along.  Benghazi wasn't a consulate in the classic sense; it was a CIA station, where the agency was collecting arms from the Libyan revolutionaries and passing them along.  Ambassador Chris Stevens's last meeting was with the Turkish ambassador.  A full year ago, Libya's revolutionary leadership was meeting with Syrian rebels under Turkish auspices and offering them arms.  In April, Lebanese authorities impounded a Libyan ship with weapons destined for Syria.  Most recently, in mid-September, a Libyan ship carried more than 400 tons of weapons, including SAM-7 surface-to-air antiaircraft missiles and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).  There were ships in between.

The recent decision by Secretary of State Clinton to withdraw recognition from the Syrian National Council and form a new working group in Qatar is an overt attempt to be relevant on the political side of the uprising and, perhaps, deflect attention from the Benghazi debacle.  Not surprisingly, several Syrian groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, have already distanced themselves from the new effort and/or denounced the U.S. effort as an attempt to control the future and buy influence in Damascus later.

If that is the intent, the effort is doomed.

Nowhere in the Arab Middle East, Pakistan, or Afghanistan (or Iran under the shah) has the United States created a government that shares our values, despite the investment of billions of dollars, millions of person-hours, and the lives of thousands of brave American soldiers.  (That is not to say that there aren't people in those countries who share our values -- certainly there are -- but it is to say that the institutions under which they live do not.)  Minority rights including women's rights and gay rights, the concept of a "loyal opposition," the peaceful transfer of power, civil society outside religious or government control, free speech, transparent government and business, and personal liberty are not the operative conditions under which the people of the region live.  And they live with well-funded, deeply rooted extremist organizations that see chaos as an opportunity to ingrain themselves ever more deeply into society.

The U.S. and Europeans spent millions on "civil society" organizations in Egypt, for example, operated by brave individuals who literally took their lives in their hands to help pry open society to enable free speech and free association.  But when the revolution came, the replacement for the secular dictator was a religious dictator.

The idea that Syrian society writ large can be liberal, tolerant, and pluralistic is simply out of touch with everything we knew about it even before the revolution, not to mention the hardening of attitudes that will accompany the war.  Support for "the rebels" in the war, or creation of a new, more broadly based revolutionary council, does not translate into politics in the Western sense.

A strong case can be made that the elimination of Assad's regime is important to set back Iranian/Shiite influence in the region.  But it is the height of naïveté to remove a radical Shiite outpost in the Levant assuming it can be replaced by a government with which the U.S. has influence.  It will almost assuredly be replaced by a radical Sunni outpost reflective of the strength of its most forceful member.

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