The leaders of Catalonia's two biggest political forces have signed a
pact to overcome their enormous divide on economic and social issues
and defy Madrid by holding a referendum on secession from Spain in 2014.
Growing Catalan separatism is a political headache for Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy, who is struggling to keep Spain's finances on track and
dodge an international bailout. Vice President Soraya Saenz de
Santamaria said today the government would try to block the referendum
in the courts.
It is still unclear how and when the vote can be legally organised
but the deal will have more direct consequences for Spain's push to
control regional finances as the two parties have agreed not to
implement more spending cuts.
The agreement between the centre-right Convergence and Union
alliance, or CiU, and the radical Republican Left, or ERC, falls short
of a governing coalition but the ERC will support CiU's budget and the
two will push together for the referendum.
"We will face a lot of adversaries, powerful ones, without scruples,"
CiU leader Artur Mas said at the signing. But he said that acting
together the CiU and ERC had enough power in the local parliament to
push ahead with the vote.
A deep recession and unemployment have stoked separatism in
Catalonia, a region in northeastern Spain that generates one-fifth of
the country's economy and has its own language and distinct culture.
Mas, who has implemented unpopular spending cuts, held early
elections November 25 to test support for his new drive for independence
for Catalonia. Many Catalans believe that their region will be better
off economically if it leaves Spain, saying that too many of their taxes
go to help out poorer regions.
In the election Mas's CiU alliance ended up with 50 seats in the
local legislature, losing 12 seats, while the traditional separatist
party ERC gained 11 seats and has 21.
Together they have an absolute majority in the 135-seat Catalan parliament.
However, it will be an uneasy alliance. The ERC has opposed CiU's
policy of deficit cutting, which has hit social services, schools and
hospitals in the last two years.
To win over the ERC, CiU has shown willingness to place levies that
will hit the wealthiest Catalans and impose a tax on bank deposits. The
ERC has signalled it is willing to make concessions in order to get to
the referendum.
Analysts said shared passion for the referendum could make the unlikely alliance hold for two years.
"I'm not naive enough to say it will be easy, but I believe the pact
will last through the referendum," said Salvador Cardus, professor of
sociology at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.
"There is a strong personal commitment between the two leaders for
Catalans to express their opinion about their political future."
Constitutional scholars said that there will be many legal twists and
turns over the next two years, but that Catalonia will probably be able
to hold some form of public consultation, though it may end up being a
non-binding or symbolic vote.
Unlike the self-determination effort in Scotland, which has received
the go-ahead from the conservative government of British Prime Minister
David Cameron, Catalonia will probably have to test various
alternatives, said Ferran Requejo, political science professor at Pompeu
Fabra University in Barcelona.
Mas's government will likely pass a Referendum Law in the Catalan
legislature, Requejo said, which is likely to be struck down by the
Constitutional Court.
"Eventually this will probably be played out in an international
legal context, beginning with the International Covenant on Civil and
Political Rights," he said, referring to the United Nations agreement in
force since 1976 that allows for self-determination.
"Spain signed that pact."
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